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TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162017
0900 UTC FRI OCT 06 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER
* NORTHERN AND WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN 
CUBA... THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA... AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NATE.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  85.1W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE  80SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  85.1W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  84.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.2N  85.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.7N  87.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 26.4N  89.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 29.3N  89.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 36.0N  84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 40.5N  74.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N  85.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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