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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL162017
0900 UTC THU OCT 05 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO RIO LAGARTOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HONDURAS... THE BAY ISLANDS... WESTERN CUBA
AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE DEPRESSION.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  83.3W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  83.3W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N  83.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 14.3N  83.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N  84.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N  86.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.8N  87.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 27.8N  89.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.0N  86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 39.5N  79.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.3N  83.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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