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Hurricane MARIA


ZCZC MIAPWSAT5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
                                                                    
HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  16                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017               
0300 UTC WED SEP 20 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
150 KTS...175 MPH...280 KM/H.                                       
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)
 
GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)
 
NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   3( 9)
 
ANDROS         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
GREAT EXUMA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   8(17)   2(19)
GREAT EXUMA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)
GREAT EXUMA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SAN SALVADOR   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  21(22)  18(40)   2(42)
SAN SALVADOR   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  11(15)   2(17)
SAN SALVADOR   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
 
MAYAGUANA      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   7(10)  42(52)   9(61)   X(61)
MAYAGUANA      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  23(24)   7(31)   X(31)
MAYAGUANA      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  12(12)   5(17)   X(17)
 
GRAND TURK     34  X   3( 3)  12(15)  43(58)  27(85)   2(87)   X(87)
GRAND TURK     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  24(25)  35(60)   2(62)   X(62)
GRAND TURK     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)  31(39)   1(40)   1(41)
 
GUANTANAMO BAY 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
LES CAYES      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34  X   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   5(14)   1(15)   X(15)
 
CAPE BEATA     34  X   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
PUERTO PLATA   34  1   5( 6)  31(37)  26(63)   7(70)   1(71)   X(71)
PUERTO PLATA   50  X   X( X)   8( 8)  18(26)   7(33)   X(33)   X(33)
PUERTO PLATA   64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
SANTO DOMINGO  34  2  15(17)  30(47)   6(53)   3(56)   X(56)   X(56)
SANTO DOMINGO  50  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   4(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
SANTO DOMINGO  64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PONCE PR       34 98   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
PONCE PR       50 78  18(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)   X(96)
PONCE PR       64 21  53(74)   1(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)   X(75)
 
AGUADILLA PR   34 74  26(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
AGUADILLA PR   50 15  80(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
AGUADILLA PR   64  2  76(78)   2(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)   X(80)
 
SAN JUAN PR    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN JUAN PR    50 97   2(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN JUAN PR    64 64  31(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 
VIEQUES PR     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
VIEQUES PR     64 94   1(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT THOMAS   50 95   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)   X(95)
SAINT THOMAS   64 43   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 
SAINT CROIX    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAINT CROIX    64 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
BARBUDA        34  2   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ANTIGUA        34  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
AVES           34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN                                                    
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