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Tropical Storm Maria Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
800 AM AST Sun Sep 17 2017

...MARIA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 55.6W
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of France has issued a Hurricane Watch for St.
Martin and St. Barthelemy.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat
* Guadeloupe
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin and St. Barthelemy
* Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* Martinique
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the British and U. S.
Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will
likely be issued today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was
located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 55.6 West.  Maria is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion with a further reduction in forward speed is expected over
the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the center of Maria
will be near the Leeward Islands Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Maria will likely become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions
possible on Monday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and
destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet
above normal tide levels within the hurricane watch area.

RAINFALL:  Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the
central and southern Leeward Islands through Wednesday night.  Maria
is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern
Leeward Islands and north-central Windward Islands.  This rainfall
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the
Lesser Antilles by tonight.  These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

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