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BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017

...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO BUT TORRENTIAL
RAINS CONTINUE...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND WILL SOON IN THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 67.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata
* Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of
the Dominican Republic and Haiti
* Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the
progress of Maria.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.  For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria
was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 67.9 West.  Maria is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday
night.  A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Friday.  On
the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Maria will continue to
move away from Puerto Rico during the next several hours, and then
pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic
early Thursday.  Maria should then move near the Turks and Caicos
Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
and Maria could regain major hurricane status by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).  Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic recently reported a
wind gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft
data is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Strong gusty winds are still occurring over portions of
Puerto Rico, but should continue to gradually subside.  Tropical
storm conditions are already spreading across the warning areas in
the Dominican Republic, and hurricane conditions should start in the
Hurricane Warning area soon.  Tropical storm conditions are expected
to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern
Bahamas on Thursday, with hurricane conditions starting Thursday
night.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels in Puerto Rico should begin to recede
in the next few hours.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and
1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican
Republic and Haiti.

A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves
will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal
tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern
Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.

RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following
rainfall totals through Saturday:

Puerto Rico...20 to 30 inches, isolated 35 inches.
U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 3 to 5 inches.
Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and the
Southeastern Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches.

Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening
flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are still affecting the Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands.  These swells are
also affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and
Caicos Islands, and should begin in the Southeastern Bahamas during
the next day or two.  These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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