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HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
1500 UTC WED SEP 27 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF OCRACOKE
INLET.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF OCRACOKE INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OCRACOKE INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO DUCK

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN
THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE
SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING
GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING
SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL
NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW
EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT
RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N  72.6W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  15 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE   0SW 100NW.
34 KT.......200NE 200SE 160SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N  72.6W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N  72.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 36.1N  72.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE  50SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 36.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 160SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 36.7N  67.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW   0NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 37.7N  62.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  90SE  80SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 200SE 200SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 42.5N  47.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 110SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 240SE 210SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 50.0N  26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N  72.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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