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HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC MON SEP 25 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF DUCK TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.  THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO
BOGUE INLET AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST
OF BOGUE INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N  73.1W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N  73.1W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  73.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 32.5N  73.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.5N  73.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 34.4N  73.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 35.3N  72.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.3N  69.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 180SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 38.8N  60.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 45.0N  45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N  73.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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