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HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC WED SEP 20 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO... CULEBRA... AND VIEQUES
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUERTO PLATA
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF PUERTO PLATA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WEST OF CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO ENGANO
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS... 
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF MARIA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  67.3W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  45SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  67.3W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  67.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 19.5N  68.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.5N  69.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  55SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 21.6N  70.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  40SW  45NW.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 22.9N  71.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 25.8N  72.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 29.0N  72.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 31.5N  72.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  67.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 
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