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Hurricane MARIA (Text)


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HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0300 UTC MON SEP 18 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT
* MARTINIQUE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. LUCIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE
ISSUED FOR PORTION OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS ON MONDAY...
AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
NEARBY ISLANDS MONDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  58.4W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  75SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  58.4W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  58.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.7N  59.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.4N  61.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.2N  62.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.9N  63.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.5N  67.0W...OVER PUERTO RICO
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 20.0N  69.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 22.0N  71.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N  58.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Oct-2017 12:09:38 UTC