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Hurricane MARIA (Text)


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HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
2100 UTC SUN SEP 17 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA.  THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR THESE ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA
* ST. KITTS... NEVIS... AND MONTSERRAT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. LUCIA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.  ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR
HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED TONIGHT OR ON
MONDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  57.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  982 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  75SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N  57.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  57.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 14.3N  59.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.1N  60.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 15.8N  61.8W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.5N  63.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.8N  65.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 19.0N  68.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 21.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N  57.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-Oct-2017 12:09:35 UTC