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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 28 2017

Although Lee remains a powerful hurricane, the cloud pattern
appears to be gradually losing some organization.  The eye has
become ragged at times, and the convective pattern is now more
asymmetric with convection becoming limited over the northwestern
quadrant.  The initial wind speed is held at 95 kt, based on an
average of the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin, but this could be a little generous.

Lee is headed toward an environment of strong wind shear and cooler
waters.  These more hostile conditions should cause the system to
steadily weaken during the next couple of days, and Lee will likely
fall below hurricane strength in 36 to 48 hours.  The system is
expected to lose its tropical characteristics in a little more than
2 days when it will be over SSTs below 20 deg C and in an
environment of about 30 kt of westerly shear.  Dissipation is now
predicted to occur by day 3, in agreement with the latest runs of
the GFS and ECMWF models.  The NHC intensity forecast is an update
of the previous one, and it remains in good agreement with the ICON
and HCCA consensus aids.

Lee has turned to the north at 8 kt on the western side of a
mid-level ridge.  The hurricane is forecast to begin accelerating
to the northeast later today when it becomes embedded in fast
mid-latitude flow, and it should continue moving in that direction
until it dissipates.  The models are tightly clustered, and only
minor changes were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 32.5N  57.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  28/1800Z 34.5N  56.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 37.4N  53.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  29/1800Z 41.0N  47.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  30/0600Z 44.7N  39.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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