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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2017

Although Lee remains an impressive hurricane, the associated cloud
pattern is not as well organized as it was earlier today.  The eye
has become slightly less distinct and there have been occasional
dry slots in the deep convection surrounding the center.  As a
result, the Dvorak estimates are a little lower, and a blend of the
numbers from TAFB, SAB, and ADT values from CIMSS at the University
of Wisconsin support lowering the initial intensity to 95 kt.

Lee is forecast to move into progressively more hostile conditions
of stronger shear and cooler waters during the next few days.
Therefore, steady weakening is expected, and Lee should lose its
tropical characteristics in 2 to 3 days when it is forecast to
be over SSTs below 20 deg C and in an environment of about 30 kt of
westerly shear.  The global models show the post-tropical low
dissipating in a little more than 3 days.  The NHC intensity
forecast is an update of the previous one, and it is in good
agreement with the ICON and HCCA consensus aids.

Lee continues to turn to the right, and the initial motion is now
345/6 kt.  A northward motion is expected overnight and early on
Thursday when Lee moves along the western periphery of the ridge.
Thereafter, Lee is expected to accelerate to the northeast when the
cyclone becomes embedded in fast mid-latitude flow.  The NHC track
forecast lies near the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0300Z 31.7N  57.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  28/1200Z 33.2N  57.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  29/0000Z 35.7N  55.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  29/1200Z 38.9N  51.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  30/0000Z 42.5N  44.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  01/0000Z 49.7N  25.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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