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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 27 2017

Lee looks like a classic major hurricane on satellite today, with a
fairly clear eye and an impressive outflow pattern aloft.  The
most noticeable change during the day is that the eye has shrunk a
little bit, perhaps suggesting Lee may undergo another eyewall
cycle.  Otherwise, the eye temperatures and eyewall convection are
similar to 6 hours ago, resulting in similar Dvorak estimates.
Thus, the wind speed will remain 100 kt for this advisory.  Lee
should be near its peak intensity tonight and begin to weaken
tomorrow as vertical wind shear increases and SSTs cool.  The system
should be losing tropical characteristics by late week, and will
likely transition into a post-tropical cyclone on Saturday due to it
moving over very cold water.  The official intensity forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, near the model consensus,
and shaded toward the global models, due to the interaction with the
mid-latitudes.

Lee has turned even farther to the right, and is now moving
north-northwestward at 7 kt.  The hurricane should turn northward
overnight and northeastward by late Thursday as it moves around the
western periphery of a subtropical ridge.  Lee should accelerate
rapidly northeastward on Friday due to it encountering fast
mid-latitude flow.  Model guidance is tightly clustered, so the
official forecast is close to the previous one, on the ECMWF side of
the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z 31.2N  57.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  28/0600Z 32.2N  57.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  28/1800Z 34.3N  56.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 36H  29/0600Z 37.3N  53.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 41.0N  48.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 48.5N  30.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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