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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

Lee remains just below major hurricane strength.  The eye of the
hurricane is very distinct with a fairly symmetric area of deep
convection surrounding that feature.  Recent microwave data show
some evidence that Lee could be developing concentric eyewalls, and
frequent lightning has been occurring in the outer periphery of the
circulation.  A blend of the subjective and objective Dvorak
estimates support holding the initial wind speed at 95 kt.  Lee
still has another 12 to 24 hours to strengthen while it remains over
warm waters and in a low wind shear environment, and it could become
a major hurricane during that time.  Thereafter, a significant
increase in wind shear and progressively cooler waters along the
forecast track should cause a steady weakening trend and lead to
post-tropical transition in a little more than 3 days.  The global
models agree that Lee should be absorbed by an extratropical low in
about 4 days.

The hurricane is moving westward at 7 kt steered by a mid-level
ridge to its north.  Lee is expected to reach the western periphery
of the ridge in 24 to 36 hours, which should cause the system to
gradually turn to the north during that time.  After that, Lee is
expected to accelerate to the northeast when it gets embedded in the
much faster mid-latitude flow.  The new NHC track is in good
agreement with the consensus models and it is not too different from
the previous one.

Lee remains a very compact hurricane with tropical-storm-force
winds extending only 60 n mi from the center.  The cyclone is
expected to become larger, however, as it gains latitude during the
next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/0300Z 30.0N  55.5W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  27/1200Z 30.5N  56.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  28/0000Z 31.6N  57.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  28/1200Z 33.4N  57.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  29/0000Z 36.0N  55.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  30/0000Z 43.7N  43.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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