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Hurricane LEE (Text)


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Hurricane Lee Discussion Number  35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 26 2017

Satellite images indicate that the cloud-top temperatures in the
eyewall of Lee have cooled this afternoon, with about the same warm
temperatures in the eye.  This indicates Lee remains on a
strengthening trend, and the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt,
near the CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique figure.  Lee has about 24
hours to intensify before shear increases and water temperatures
begin to cool.  Most of the guidance now show Lee becoming a major
hurricane, and the official forecast follows suit.  A more
significant weakening is expected by the end of the week as the
hurricane moves over much colder waters and into higher shear. Model
guidance is virtually unanimous on this scenario, and only minor
changes were made to the previous forecast. The small tropical
cyclone should become absorbed in a large extratropical low over the
northeastern Atlantic Ocean within 4 or 5 days.

Lee is moving westward at 8 kt.  The hurricane should gradually turn
to the northwest on Wednesday and to the north on Thursday as it
moves around a ridge over the east-central Atlantic. Thereafter, Lee
is likely to accelerate to the northeast as it enters the faster
mid-latitude flow.  The most significant change to the previous
forecast is that the model guidance has trended westward with the
first part of the forecast, closest to the 00 UTC ECMWF solution.
Since the 12 UTC ECMWF is very consistent with its previous
forecast, the NHC track forecast is adjusted westward near the
point of recurvature, then is blended back with the previous
forecast closer to the corrected consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 29.9N  54.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  27/0600Z 30.0N  55.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  27/1800Z 31.0N  56.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  28/0600Z 32.4N  57.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  28/1800Z 34.5N  56.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  29/1800Z 41.0N  48.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  30/1800Z 48.5N  30.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Dec-2017 12:09:38 UTC