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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN (Text)


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Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132017
1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 05 2017

Convection continues near the center of the depression, although it
isn't very curved at this time.  Overall, westerly shear is keeping
most of the thunderstorm activity in the eastern semicircle of the
cyclone.  Dvorak estimates are unchanged, so the initial wind speed
remains 30 kt.  Global models suggest that the westerly shear
should gradually subside over the next few days while the
depression moves over very warm water.  This is a recipe for
strengthening, and the official forecast is similar to the previous
advisory.  More guidance members are showing the cyclone eventually
becoming a hurricane than the last cycle, so the peak intensity is
bumped up 5 kt, staying a bit above the model consensus.

Microwave data indicate the depression continues to drift eastward.
The cyclone should gradually turn southward and southwestward as
high pressure builds near Texas, along with an increase in forward
speed forecast on Friday.  The guidance has come into somewhat
better agreement on the track forecast during the past 6 hours,
and little change was made to the previous advisory. The NHC
forecast remains on the southern side of the guidance, since
models in that part of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico tend to have
a northward bias.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 22.2N  96.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 22.1N  96.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 21.8N  95.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 21.5N  95.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 21.2N  95.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 20.8N  95.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 19.4N  98.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-Oct-2017 12:09:31 UTC