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HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
1500 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF SINT MAARTEN HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR SINT MAARTEN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... AND ANGUILLA
* SINT MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... AND ANGUILLA
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SINT MAARTEN

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. THOMAS AND ST. JOHN

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  57.1W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  942 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 150SW 195NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N  57.1W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  56.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.8N  59.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.7N  61.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.0N  62.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  85SE  50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.6N  65.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.2N  68.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 26.4N  68.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N  57.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


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