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Hurricane JOSE (Text)


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HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
0900 UTC FRI SEP 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
ISLAND OF ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA
* ST MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MONTSERRAT...ST KITTS...AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  55.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N  55.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N  54.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.6N  57.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.3N  59.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.5N  61.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.0N  63.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 23.5N  67.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW  75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 26.4N  68.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 27.9N  67.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N  55.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-Oct-2017 12:09:25 UTC