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HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC THU SEP 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN ST. MARTIN AND SINT
MAARTEN BEGINNING ON SATURDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  52.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  966 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  70SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..195NE  90SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  52.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  51.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 16.0N  54.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 16.6N  57.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.3N  59.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  15SE  15SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.4N  61.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.9N  65.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 25.5N  67.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.3N  67.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N  52.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LAMERS/CARBIN


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