ZCZC MIATCMAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122017
1500 UTC THU SEP 07 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE ISLANDS OF SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST KITTS... AND NEVIS
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  50.6W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  50.6W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N  49.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 15.4N  53.1W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 16.0N  56.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 16.6N  58.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  15SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.5N  60.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.3N  64.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N  67.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N  68.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N  50.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


NNNN