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Hurricane JOSE (Text)


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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Aircraft data indicate that the peak winds of Jose haven't changed
much since the last flight, with similar pressure values and
flight-level winds.  The wind speed will remain 65 kt in accordance
with the flight-level winds, but this could be generous as the SFMR
was a bit lower.

Satellite images show that Jose has become a little less tropical,
with an elongated cloud pattern suggesting that the cyclone has some
hybrid characteristics.  Jose should eventually weaken in a day or
so as it moves north of the north wall of the Gulf Stream into a
more stable environment. Little change was made to the previous
forecast, which is similar to much of the guidance, and Jose should
become post-tropical in a few days. The long range forecast
intensity depends on how far south the system moves, but since the
predicted track is still over cool waters, slow weakening is
anticipated.

The center of Jose took a north-northwest turn earlier tonight due
to a convective burst, but it now appears it is back to moving
toward the north. A continued northward motion at about the same
forward speed is expected during the next day or so while the
hurricane remains on the west side of a mid-level ridge over the
western Atlantic.  All of the guidance keep the center of Jose
offshore of southern New England, but close enough to cause
tropical-storm-force winds for a portion of the area. Thereafter, a
trough currently over central Canada is expected to cause Jose to
turn eastward in the 2 to 3 day time frame.  The trough is then
expected to lift out, leaving Jose drifting to the south and
southwest under a blocking ridge forming over the northeastern
United States. Little change was made to the previous NHC track
forecast, and this one lies near the various consensus aids.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. While the center of Jose is currently forecast to remain offshore
of the U.S. coast, the large cyclone is expected to cause some
direct impacts in portions of New England, and a tropical storm
warning is in effect for the coast of Rhode Island and a part of
the Massachusetts coast, including Cape Cod.  Any deviation to the
left of the NHC forecast track would increase the likelihood and
magnitude of impacts elsewhere along the U.S. east coast from
Delaware to southern New England.

2. Minor to moderate coastal flooding is possible from Delaware to
southern New England during the next several days.  Please see
products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas,
and much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause
dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next several days
in these areas.

4. Jose will produce heavy rain over a small part of southern New
England and eastern Long Island as it passes offshore of these
locations on Tuesday and Wednesday. Total accumulations of 3 to 5
inches are expected over eastern Long Island, southeast Connecticut,
southern Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts, including
Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket. This rainfall could cause isolate
flooding. Elsewhere Jose is expected to produce light rainfall with
little risk of flooding over the majority of the mid-Atlantic coast
and the northeast states.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 35.2N  71.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 36.2N  71.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 37.8N  70.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 39.1N  69.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 39.8N  68.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 39.4N  67.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  23/0000Z 38.5N  67.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  24/0000Z 38.0N  68.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Blake

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2017 12:09:32 UTC