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Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number  37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

Satellite images show that Jose remains a sheared tropical cyclone.
The center of the cyclone is on the northwestern edge of the deep
convection, with any significant banding features in the
southeastern quadrant.  Dvorak estimates suggest that Jose has
weakened slightly, so the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt.

Using fixes from early-morning microwave data, Jose appears to be
moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt due to a building mid-level
ridge to the north of the cyclone.  Jose should gradually turn
northwestward by the weekend and northward early next week while it
moves around the ridge.  A trough currently over the Lower
Mississippi Valley into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected
to play a key role in how close Jose comes to the eastern United
States.  Some of the model solutions show the trough tugging on the
tropical cyclone, causing a more north-northwestward motion at the
end of the period, while others have the trough deflecting the
cyclone more out to sea. While it is too early for details at this
point, the model guidance is generally west of the previous
forecast, so the new NHC prediction is shifted to the left, about 60
n mi west-southwest of previous forecast at day 5.

Vertical shear is forecast to lessen in about a day near Jose, so
restrengthening is expected to commence on Friday since the cyclone
is over warm water.  After day 3, Jose will be interacting with the
aforementioned Lower Mississippi Valley trough, which will probably
cause an increase in shear, although some baroclinic energy could
lessen those effects.  Although the official intensity forecast
shows little change at the end of the period, the model guidance
does show Jose becoming larger and more spread out as it interacts
with the trough.

Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough
surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 24.9N  66.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 25.1N  67.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 25.8N  69.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 26.7N  70.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 27.7N  72.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 29.8N  72.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  18/1200Z 32.4N  72.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  19/1200Z 35.5N  71.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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