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Hurricane JOSE (Text)


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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017

Earlier this morning, Jose began to take on a sheared appearance in
conventional and microwave imagery, though the outflow has since
been restored.  A 0356 UTC GPM overpass showed that the mid-level
center was displaced to the south of the low-level center.
Objective and subjective Final-T numbers have fallen, and on that
basis, the initial intensity has been decreased slightly to 65 kt.

I expect little change in strength through the forecast period.
Moderate shear should prevent significant intensification for the
next couple of days, and could cause Jose to weaken to a Tropical
Storm. After that time, Jose may begin transitioning to a more
baroclinicly-driven cyclone.  In fact, the GFS shows Jose with some
extratropical characteristics by day 5.  The dynamical models all
indicate that Jose could regain some strength during this period, so
the new NHC forecast reflects that.

The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain 270/ 3 kt.
Although the reasoning behind the track forecast has not changed,
there has been a large shift to the west in the guidance since the
last forecast.  A mid-level ridge, now forecast to be a little
stronger than previously expected, should cause Jose to turn
toward the northwest, and eventually the north.  Since the
guidance has shifted left, the new official track forecast is west
of the previous one, but now lays on the eastern side of the
guidance envelope.  I would prefer to see more run to run
consistency before committing to a farther left track at this time.

Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the
southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough
surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 25.1N  66.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 25.2N  67.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 25.9N  68.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 26.7N  70.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 27.8N  71.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  17/0600Z 29.7N  72.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  18/0600Z 32.5N  71.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  19/0600Z 35.0N  70.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Page last modified: Wednesday, 13-Dec-2017 12:09:26 UTC