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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017

Northwesterly shear continues to affect Jose, with exposed low cloud
lines over the northwestern portion of the circulation. Overall, the
system is a little less well-organized than it was 24 hours ago,
with less evidence of banding features.  The intensity is kept at 65
kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB.
The global models continue to show significant shear over Jose for
the next several days, and this shear is forecast to become quite
strong by days 4 and 5.  The official intensity forecast shows a
little weakening in a couple of days, but it would not be surprising
to see Jose drop below hurricane status sooner than shown here.

Jose appears to be nearing the base of its anticipated anticyclonic
loop while drifting slowly southward.  The cyclone is expected to
turn to the west and west-northwest over the next day or so.  Later
in the forecast period, a northward motion is expected as a mid-
level high builds to the east-northeast.  Jose is expected to move
through a break in the subtropical ridge in 3-5 days.  The official
track forecast is similar to its predecessor and is about in the
middle of the reliable guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/2100Z 25.3N  65.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/0600Z 25.1N  65.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  14/1800Z 25.4N  66.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  15/0600Z 26.2N  68.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  15/1800Z 27.3N  69.9W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  16/1800Z 30.3N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  17/1800Z 33.2N  70.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  18/1800Z 36.0N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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