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Hurricane JOSE (Text)


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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017

Jose continues to be affected by strong northwesterly shear
associated with an upper-level anticyclone centered to its west.
Although the hurricane tried to develop some banding features
yesterday, the system has again transformed into a rather
shapeless mass of intense convection.  The current intensity
estimate is held at 65 kt in agreement with Dvorak Current
Intensities from TAFB and SAB.  The intensity forecast continues
to be of low confidence.  Dynamical models indicate that strong
shear, from varying directions, will persist over Jose for the next
several days.  Also, the tropical cyclone will likely be passing
over its own cold wake in a couple of days.  These factors argue
against strengthening, so the official forecast shows no change
followed by slight weakening later in the period.  This is on the
high side of the intensity model guidance.

Jose has been moving slowly southeastward, or 140/6 kt, between a
mid-level anticyclone to its west and a trough to the northeast.
The global models show a high pressure area building to the east-
northeast of Jose in a couple of days, which should eventually
induce a poleward motion.  The track models show a looping motion
during the next 48 hours followed by a turn toward the north, as
does the official forecast.  The latest NHC track is similar to the
previous one and lies between the ECMWF solution and the other
models, which are farther west.  This keeps Jose away from land
areas for at least the next several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/1500Z 25.5N  65.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  14/0000Z 25.2N  65.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  14/1200Z 25.1N  66.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  15/0000Z 25.5N  67.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  15/1200Z 26.4N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  16/1200Z 28.5N  71.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  17/1200Z 31.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  18/1200Z 34.0N  69.0W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2017 12:09:31 UTC