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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017

The satellite presentation of Jose is that of a rather amorphous
blob of deep convection, with only slight evidence of banding
features.  The system continues to be sheared by northwesterly flow
associated with an upper-level anticyclone centered just to its
west.  A value of 65 kt is retained for the current intensity, in
agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB.  The dynamical models
indicate that the shear over Jose will remain fairly strong for the
next few days with perhaps some relaxation by days 3-5 as an
upper-level high becomes situated over the system.  Thus a little
weakening in the short term, followed by some restrengthening later
in the forecast period, is expected.  Confidence in this intensity
forecast is, however, lower than usual.

Although the center is difficult to locate, a blend of geostationary
and microwave fixes yield a slow eastward motion of around 090/4 kt.
Jose is currently situated in a region of weak steering currents.
The GFS and ECMWF global models build a mid-level anticyclone to the
west of the tropical cyclone in a day or two.  The anticyclone is
then forecast to shift north, and then east, of Jose later in the
forecast period.  This evolution of the steering flow should result
in the tropical cyclone moving in a clockwise loop over the next
several days.  Aside from the U.K. Met. Office prediction, which is
well south and west of the other track models, the official forecast
is near the left side of the guidance suite.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 27.5N  68.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 27.2N  67.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 26.4N  66.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 25.7N  65.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 25.3N  66.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 26.0N  69.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 28.0N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 30.0N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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