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Hurricane JOSE (Text)


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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 11 2017

Jose remains resilient in the face of 25 kts of northeasterly shear,
with a new burst of deep convection near the center giving the
system a slightly better satellite presentation over the last couple
of hours. Even so, the convection is pulsing, and satellite based
intensity estimates support lowering the initial intensity estimate
to 75 kt for this advisory.

Due to some uncertainty as to the center location, the initial
motion for this advisory is approximated to be 045/05 kts. Latest
round of forecast guidance is consistent with the ongoing forecast
philosophy, with Jose expected to complete an anticyclonic or
clockwise loop over the next 3 days. A mid-level ridge to the
southeast of Jose will shift west then northwest of Jose, leading to
a southeastward motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. As the ridge
shifts to the north of the cyclone, Jose will briefly stall before
resuming a more typical track toward the west and northwest on days
4 and 5. Even with such a complex track expected to evolve, there is
good agreement amongst most of the model guidance. The latest
official forecast is very close to the previous one, nudged only
slightly northward toward the FSSE and other consensus members, but
left of the GFS and ECMWF ensemble means. UKMET and its ensemble
mean continue to be on the southwest side of the guidance cone, and
these outliers therefore have little impact on the official
track forecast at this time.

The shear that Jose is encountering is associated with an
upper-level ridge centered to the northwest, and even as this
feature weakens the next day or so, moderate shear is forecast
persist as Jose remains over 29C water. These conflicting inputs are
expected to lead to little change in intensity through day 3, with
some potential for Jose to intensify toward the end of the forecast
period as shear relaxes as Jose moves away from its own cold
wake. The latest intensity forecast is of low confidence at this
time due to the above factors and keeps Jose a hurricane through the
forecast period, and closely resembles SHIPS and IVCN intensity
guidance.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami will resume issuance of
advisories for Jose at the next forecast cycle. Thanks to the
Weather Prediction Center, NWS Forecast offices, supporting staff
and many participating partners for ensuring a successful continuity
of operations during the past several days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0300Z 27.1N  69.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  12/1200Z 27.5N  69.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  13/0000Z 27.1N  67.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  13/1200Z 26.0N  66.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  14/0000Z 25.4N  66.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  15/0000Z 25.3N  68.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  16/0000Z 27.0N  72.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  17/0000Z 29.5N  75.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard/Roth/Sisko

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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Oct-2017 12:09:31 UTC