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Hurricane JOSE (Text)


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Hurricane Jose Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017

Jose continues to have an impressive satellite signature, with a
nearly clear 15 to 20 n mi wide eye surrounded by a ring of deep
convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane just finished a
mission through Jose, with maximum flight-level winds of 122 kt and
maximum SFMR winds of 109 kt. Based on this data, the initial
intensity for this advisory is estimated to be 115 kt.

The initial motion remains a steady 310/12 kt, with Jose's motion
through the first 36 hours being driven by a deep-layer ridge
located to the north of the cyclone. As the ridge shifts to the
east of the system on day 2, a turn toward the north is expected,
with a decrease in the forward motion. By day 3, the steering
currents are expected to become quite weak, with Jose moving
north of the mid-level ridge, while a deep-layer low passes well to
the northeast. This will induce a short-lived motion to the east,
but as the ridge rebuilds west and then north of Jose, a gradual
westward turn of the cyclone is expected. The 5-day forecast
depicts Jose completing a relatively small anticyclonic loop over
the open Atlantic. The updated forecast is close to the previous
one, and closely follows the consensus guidance and operational
ECMWF/GFS/UKMET.

The shear over Jose is currently analyzed to be near 10 kt, and thus
little change in short-term intensity is expected. Although water
temperatures will be sufficiently warm to support an intense
cyclone, moderate shear - of varying directions - is expected to
lead to gradual weakening over the next couple of days as Jose
meanders over the open Atlantic. The updated intensity forecast is
close to the previous prediction, but is stronger than the SHIPS
model, due to the IVCN/ECMWF models maintaining a more intense
system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 19.8N  63.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 21.1N  65.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 22.8N  67.2W  110 KT 125 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 24.4N  68.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 25.5N  69.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 26.3N  68.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 25.2N  67.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 24.5N  69.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard/Blake

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 12-Dec-2017 12:09:28 UTC