| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Hurricane JOSE (Text)


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Hurricane Jose Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122017
500 AM AST Thu Sep 07 2017

Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery indicates some improvement of
the inner core during the past several hours.  The earlier
identified banding eye feature in microwave imagery appears to be
closing off in the west side.  Based on the overall improvement of
the cloud pattern and a consensus of the satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is raised to 80
kt.  Further strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours.
After that time, increasing northerly shear associated with the
outflow of Hurricane Irma should inhibit further intensification
and subsequently, cause the cyclone to begin weakening.  The
intensity forecast is based primarily on the IVCN consensus model
and is close to the HWRF through 48 hours.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/16
kt, within the mid-tropospheric flow produced by the western extent
of a subtropical high to the north.  Jose should continue on this
general west-northwestward track through the 36 hour period.
Afterward, the ridge to the north is forecast to weaken in response
to a mid-latitude shortwave trough approaching from the northeast.
This transition in the synoptic steering pattern should influence
Jose in a more northwestward motion through the remainder of the
forecast period.  The NHC forecast is slightly to the left of the
previous advisory beyond 48 hours, and is based on a blend of the
HFIP Corrected consensus model and the ECMWF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0900Z 14.8N  49.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 15.2N  51.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 15.8N  54.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 16.4N  57.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z 17.2N  59.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 72H  10/0600Z 19.7N  63.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  11/0600Z 23.0N  67.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  12/0600Z 26.4N  69.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

NNNN

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 20-Oct-2017 12:09:29 UTC