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Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...EYE OF IRMA CONTINUES MOVING OVER THE CAMAGUEY ARCHIPELAGO OF
CUBA AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 78.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF CAIBARIEN CUBA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning and the Storm Surge Warning are extended
northward along the Florida West coast from Anclote River to
Chassahowitzka.

The Hurricane Warning is extended northward along the Florida East
coast to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued north of Fernandina Beach to
Altamaha Sound, Georgia.

Additional Watches and Warnings may be required for portions of the
coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, as well as portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast later today.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Volusia/Brevard County Line southward around the Florida peninsula
to Chassahowitzka
* Florida Keys
* Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia
County line
* North of Chassahowitzka to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Line southward around the Florida peninsula
to Chassahowitzka
* Florida Keys
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Bay
* Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, and Matanzas
* Central Bahamas and Ragged Island
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Fernandina Beach
* North and west of Chassahowitzka to Indian Pass
* Cuban provinces of Holguin and Las Tunas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Holguin, Las Tunas, La Habana, and Ciudad de
la Habana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach to Altamaha Sound

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, Florida, and the southeastern United
States should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 78.8 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A turn toward the
northwest is expected by late today, with a turn toward the
north-northwest expected tonight or on Sunday.  On the forecast
track, the center of Irma will move near the north coast of Cuba
today, near the Florida Keys Sunday morning, and then near the
southwest coast of Florida Sunday afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane as it approaches Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 930 mb (27.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is
expected to reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

SW Florida from Captiva to Cape Sable...8 to 12 ft
Cape Sable to Boca Raton including the Florida Keys...5 to 10 ft
Venice to Captiva...5 to 8 ft
Suwannee River to Venice including Tampa Bay...3 to 5 ft
Boca Raton to Flagler/Volusia County line...2 to 4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Ragged Island in the Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Central and Northwestern Bahamas...3 to 6 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area...5 to 10 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are still occurring over portions of the
central Bahamas, as well as Ragged Island.  Hurricane conditions are
expected to continue within the hurricane warning area along the
north coast of Cuba through today.  Hurricane conditions are
expected in the northwestern Bahamas today, and in portions of
southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys tonight and
Sunday.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in central and north Florida by Sunday.

RAINFALL: Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Tuesday night:

Northern Cuba...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches. Southern
Cuba...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.

Western Bahamas...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.

The Florida Keys...10 to 20 inches, isolated 25 inches.

The Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia...8 to 15 inches,
isolated 20 inches.

The eastern Florida Panhandle...3 to 6 inches, isolated 8 inches.

Rest of eastern Georgia, western South Carolina, and western North
Carolina...4 to 8 inches. Western Georgia, eastern and northern
Alabama, and southern Tennessee...2 to 5 inches.

In all areas this rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods
and, in some areas, mudslides.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern Florida.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma are affecting the southeastern
Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, and the southeast coast of the United States
today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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