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Hurricane IRMA (Text)


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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET
* NORTH MIAMI BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
OCHLOCKONEE RIVER
* FLORIDA KEYS
* TAMPA BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO INDIAN
PASS
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N  81.8W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  938 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT.......190NE 170SE 140SW 190NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 180SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N  81.8W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N  81.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.0N  82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.7N  83.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 160SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 33.1N  86.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 100SE   0SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 34.5N  88.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 36.5N  89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 39.0N  86.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N  81.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Oct-2017 12:09:21 UTC