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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

THE HURRICANE WATCH WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO INDIAN PASS HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING...AND THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH
TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS PROVINCES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE
SUWANEE RIVER
* FLORIDA KEYS
* TAMPA BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO INDIAN
PASS
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS...AND HAVANA
* ANDROS ISLAND...BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO INDIAN PASS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  80.5W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  933 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE  30SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N  80.5W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.1N  80.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.1N  81.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.7N  82.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...115NE 110SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 170SE 130SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.3N  82.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  85SW  75NW.
34 KT...300NE 230SE 160SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 31.2N  83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  40SW  20NW.
34 KT...250NE 200SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 35.5N  88.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 36.1N  89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N  80.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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