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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
1500 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM CHASSAHOWITZKA TO THE
SUWANEE RIVER.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF THE SUWANEE
RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AND FROM NORTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD
COUNTY LINE NORTH TO ISLE OF PALMS SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH, AND THE HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO
BEACH.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO COAST HAS BEEN
EXTENDED TO THE AUCILLA RIVER.  THE HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO INDIAN PASS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO
THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO THE
HAVANA PROVINCE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ADJUSTED THE HURRICANE WARNING
TO ONLY INCLUDE ANDROS ISLAND...BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TO THE SUWANEE RIVER
* FLORIDA KEYS
* TAMPA BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE ISLE OF PALMS
SOUTH CAROLINA
* NORTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FERNANDINA BEACH SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO
THE AUCILLA RIVER
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
VILLA CLARA...MATANZAS AND HAVANA
* ANDROS ISLAND, BIMINI AND GRAND BAHAMA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO EDISTO BEACH
* WEST OF THE AUCILLA RIVER TO INDIAN PASS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN, LAS TUNAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
* WEST OF INDIAN PASS TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE... IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK... PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC... AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N  79.8W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  941 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE  30SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N  79.8W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N  79.3W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.4N  80.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.5N  81.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.4N  82.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 140SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.0N  82.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 150SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 34.5N  86.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 36.0N  89.0W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 37.0N  88.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N  79.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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