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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
0900 UTC SAT SEP 09 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING AND THE STORM SURGE WARNING ARE EXTENDED
NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ANCLOTE RIVER TO
CHASSAHOWITZKA.

THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO
ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COASTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA...AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST LATER TODAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO CHASSAHOWITZKA
* FLORIDA KEYS
* TAMPA BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA
COUNTY LINE
* NORTH OF CHASSAHOWITZKA TO SUWANNEE RIVER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO CHASSAHOWITZKA
* FLORIDA KEYS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA BAY
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...
VILLA CLARA...AND MATANZAS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND RAGGED ISLAND
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* NORTH AND WEST OF CHASSAHOWITZKA TO INDIAN PASS
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN AND LAS TUNAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE
LA HABANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF FERNANDINA BEACH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION... FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  78.8W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  930 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT.......100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 120SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N  78.8W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N  78.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 22.9N  80.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.8N  81.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
50 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
34 KT...170NE 160SE 120SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 25.4N  81.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE  70SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 180SE 140SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.7N  82.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
34 KT...250NE 220SE 150SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 32.5N  84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 180SE  60SW  60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 35.5N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 36.0N  87.5W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N  78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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