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Hurricane IRMA (Text)


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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
2100 UTC WED SEP 06 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND... THE EXUMAS... LONG
ISLAND... RUM CAY... AND SAN SALVADOR.  A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING THE ABACOS...
ANDROS ISLAND... BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI... ELEUTHERA... GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND... AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... AND LAS TUNAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES... AND CULEBRA
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
HAITI
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE
MOLE ST. NICHOLAS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA FROM MATANZAS PROVINCE EASTWARD TO GUANTANAMO PROVINCE
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE
* CUBA PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO... HOLGUIN... AND LAS TUNAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... AS WELL
AS CUBA... THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS... AND FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  65.4W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  914 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
50 KT.......100NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......160NE 120SE  80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE  90SE  60SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N  65.4W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N  64.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.6N  67.6W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.7N  70.4W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 130SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.5N  73.1W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.2N  75.6W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.2N  79.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 26.0N  80.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 31.0N  81.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N  65.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Oct-2017 12:09:19 UTC