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Hurricane IRMA (Text)


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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
1500 UTC TUE SEP 05 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... INCLUDING
THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM
THE BORDER OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WESTWARD TO LE MOLE ST.
NICHOLAS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SOUTH OF LE
MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND
NEVIS
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SINT MAARTEN
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH
HAITI
* HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE
MOLE ST. NICHOLAS
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SOUTH OF CABO ENGAO TO ISLA SAONA
* HAITI FROM SOUTH OF LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS TO PORT-AU-PRINCE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. IN THIS CASE...FOR SOME OF EASTERNMOST ISLANDS...THE
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI... AS
WELL AS CUBA...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND FLORIDA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  58.4W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  931 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 155 KT WITH GUSTS TO 190 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT.......140NE 110SE  80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 135SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  58.4W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  57.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.2N  60.3W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N  63.0W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.1N  65.9W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.1N  68.7W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.4N  74.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.7N  78.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 24.4N  81.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  58.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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