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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
2100 UTC MON SEP 04 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA... BARBUDA... ANGUILLA... MONTSERRAT... ST. KITTS... AND
NEVIS
* SABA... ST. EUSTATIUS... AND SINT MAARTEN
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO... VIEQUES... AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS... CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC... HAITI... THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS... AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  54.4W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  54.4W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N  53.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 16.6N  56.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.0N  58.7W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.8N  61.3W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.7N  64.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE  90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.4N  69.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 21.6N  74.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N  54.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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