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Hurricane IRMA (Text)


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HURRICANE IRMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112017
1500 UTC MON SEP 04 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT...ST.
KITTS...AND NEVIS.  A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SINT MAARTEN.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ST.
MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY.  A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
GUADELOUPE.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND
NEVIS
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND SINT MAARTEN
* SAINT MARTIN AND SAINT BARTHELEMY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GUADELOUPE
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF IRMA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  53.3W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 150SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  53.3W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  52.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.5N  54.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 16.7N  57.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.3N  59.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  35SE  30SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.2N  62.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...160NE 130SE  90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.9N  68.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 21.2N  73.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 22.0N  77.8W...NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  53.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 22-Oct-2017 12:09:18 UTC