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Potential Tropical Cyclone TEN (Text)


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD PAST CAPE FEAR...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 77.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from Surf City to Little River Inlet has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
34.1 North, longitude 77.7 West.  The system is moving faster toward
the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h) and is anticipated to accelerate
east-northeastward during the next couple of days.  The expected
track will take the system along the North Carolina coast today
before moving out to sea tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength
today, and the chances for the system to become a tropical cyclone
appear to be decreasing.  Regardless of whether or not this system
becomes a tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy
rains are expected over portions of North Carolina later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through this afternoon.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 5 inches
along the northeastern North Carolina and southeastern Virginia
coasts into the Delmarva through Wednesday.  The heavier rains may
result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the North Carolina and Virginia coasts during the next day or so,
creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A brief tornado is possible through midday along the
North Carolina coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN

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Page last modified: Monday, 23-Oct-2017 12:09:20 UTC