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Potential Tropical Cyclone TEN (Text)


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
200 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED VERY NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 79.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
32.5 North, longitude 79.5 West.  The system is moving toward the
north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h).  A faster northeast motion is
expected during the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the
system will move near or over the coast of South Carolina this
morning and across the North Carolina Outer Banks later today.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength
through this morning and the chances for the system to become a
tropical cyclone appear to be decreasing.  Regardless of whether or
not this system becomes a tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force
winds and heavy rains are expected over portions of the Carolinas
during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area this afternoon and tropical storm conditions are possible
in the watch area later this morning.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches along northeastern South
Carolina, North Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with
possible isolated maximum amounts of 9 inches.  The heavier rains
may result in some flooding concerns along coastal areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia coasts during the
next day or so, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A brief tornado is possible today along the South
Carolina and North Carolina coasts.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

NNNN

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Page last modified: Friday, 20-Oct-2017 12:09:18 UTC