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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STILL WITH NO WELL-DEFINED CENTER...
...AIR FORCE PLANE CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 80.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within
within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to
24 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the elongated area of low pressure
associated with the disturbance was centered near latitude
31.8 North, longitude 80.3 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a gradual turn to the north-
northeast and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed
are expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the system will move over or near the coast of South Carolina
today and move along the North Carolina Outer Banks on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. These winds are occuring over water well to the east of
the broad area of low pressure. Although the disturbance has
not shown any significant increase in organization today, conditions
still favor the system becoming a tropical storm later today or
Tuesday.  An Air Force plane is currently investigating the
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible
in the watch area later today.

RAINFALL:  The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches along the northeastern South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 9 inches.  The heavier rains may result in some
flooding concerns along coastal areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the
next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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