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Potential Tropical Cyclone TEN (Text)


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

...DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 81.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
30.3 North, longitude 81.0 West. The system is currently stationary.
A slow and erratic motion is forecast through this afternoon,
followed by a faster northeastward motion tonight and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the system will move near the Georgia and
South Carolina coasts today and move along the North Carolina coast
tonight and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the system is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The
cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on Tuesday.

A wind gust of 44 mph (70 km/h) has recently been reported at
NOAA's Gray's Reef buoy off the Georgia coast.

Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms show some signs of organization, but the center of
circulation is not yet well defined.  Only a slight increase in the
definition of the circulation would lead to the formation of a
tropical cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area tonight and Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the
next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Oct-2017 12:09:18 UTC