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Potential Tropical Cyclone TEN (Text)


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
500 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

...DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
CAROLINA COASTAL BORDER...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.5N 78.5W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ENE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from South Santee River
to Little River Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to Little River Inlet

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area later today.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
33.5 North, longitude 78.5 West.  The system is moving toward the
northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and is anticipated to turn toward
the east-northeast and accelerate during the next couple of days.
The expected track will take the system along the North Carolina
coast today before moving out to sea tonight.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.  The disturbance is not expected to change much in strength
today and the chances for the system to become a tropical cyclone
appear to be decreasing.  Regardless of whether or not this system
becomes a tropical cyclone, tropical-storm-force winds and heavy
rains are expected over portions of North Carolina later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours... medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area this afternoon and tropical storm conditions are possible
in the watch area later this morning.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts of 5 inches
along northeastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia coasts into
the Delmarva through Wednesday.  The heavier rains may result in
some flooding concerns along coastal areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the North Carolina  and Virginia coasts during the next day or so,
creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES:  A brief tornado is possible through midday along the
North Carolina coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

NNNN

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Page last modified: Monday, 16-Oct-2017 12:09:28 UTC