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Potential Tropical Cyclone TEN (Text)


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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number   4...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
1100 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

Corrected to clarify that the Tropical Storm Warning begins north
of Surf City.

...DISTURBANCE COULD BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR
TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 80.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the North Carolina
coast from north of Surf City to Duck including the Albemarle and
Pamlico Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Surf City to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Surf City to South Santee River

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area in this case within
within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the area of minimum pressure associated
with the disturbance was estimated near latitude 31.4 North,
longitude 80.3 West. The system is moving toward the north-northeast
near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the
forecast track the system will move over or near the coast of South
Carolina today and move along the North Carolina Outer Banks on
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance will likely become a tropical depression or a tropical
storm later today or Tuesday.  An Air Force plane will check the
disturbance later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
tonight and Tuesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in
the watch area later today.

RAINFALL:  The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches along the northeastern South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 9 inches.  The heavier rains may result in some
flooding concerns along coastal areas.

SURF:  Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the
next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

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Page last modified: Friday, 20-Oct-2017 12:09:18 UTC