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Potential Tropical Cyclone TEN (Text)


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BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Advisory Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 27 2017

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
THROUGH MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 80.8W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South Santee River to Duck
* Albemarle Sound
* Pamlico Sound

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to
36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 30.5 North, longitude 80.8 West. The system is currently
stationary.  A slow and erratic motion is forecast through early
Monday, followed by a faster northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday.  On the forecast track, the system will move near the
Georgia and South Carolina coasts tonight and Monday and move along
the North Carolina coast Monday night and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the system is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday.  The
cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical on Tuesday.

A wind gust of 43 mph (69 km/h) has recently been reported at NOAA's
Gray's Reef buoy off the Georgia coast.

Satellite and radar data indicate that the associated showers and
thunderstorms remain organized, but the center of circulation
is not yet well defined.  Only a slight increase in the definition
of the circulation would lead to the formation of a tropical
cyclone.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on buoy data is 1007 mb
(29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area Monday night and Tuesday.

RAINFALL:  The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along the South Carolina, North
Carolina, and southeast Virginia coasts, with possible isolated
maximum amounts of 6 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by this disturbance will affect portions of
the Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina coasts during the
next day or two, creating dangerous surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Dec-2017 12:09:18 UTC