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Potential Tropical Cyclone TEN (Text)


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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102017
1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT...NORTH CAROLINA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK
* ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATER TODAY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  77.2W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  45 DEGREES AT  15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  90SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE   0SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  77.2W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  77.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 36.6N  73.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 160SE  90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 38.8N  69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 40.4N  63.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...100NE  60SE 120SW 120NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 130SW 150NW.
34 KT...240NE 310SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 41.8N  58.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE   0SE 180SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 420SE 350SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 45.8N  45.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 390SE 330SW   0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 51.0N  29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.4N  77.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Oct-2017 12:09:18 UTC