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POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102017
2100 UTC MON AUG 28 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK
* ALBEMARLE SOUND
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN THIS CASE WITHIN
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N  79.9W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N  79.9W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N  80.3W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 33.4N  78.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  75SE  20SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 35.6N  75.7W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  90SE  20SW   0NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 38.0N  71.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 40.0N  66.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 150SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 43.0N  56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 47.0N  44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 51.6N  28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N  79.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


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