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Potential Tropical Cyclone TEN (Text)


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
500 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

Visible satellite images indicate that a more well-defined
circulation has begun to form east of the Outer Banks, and surface
observations indicate that pressures are falling.  The low is
becoming extratropical, and there is no longer a possibility of it
becoming a tropical cyclone.  In addition, the associated
tropical-storm-force winds that have been occurring to the southeast
of the center are limited to marine areas, so this will be the last
NHC advisory on this system.  Maximum winds are estimated to be 40
kt to the southeast of the center.

Baroclinic influences are expected to cause the low to deepen as an
extratropical cyclone during the next day or two, and it is forecast
to produce sustained hurricane-force winds over the northwestern
Atlantic by late Wednesday.  Gradual weakening is forecast after 36
hours, and the cyclone is likely to be absorbed by another
extratropical system over the north Atlantic by day 5.

The low continues to accelerate toward the northeast with an initial
motion of 050/21 kt, and it should move even faster toward the
northeast or east-northeast across the north Atlantic through day 4,
embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.  The track, intensity, and
wind radii forecasts incorporate guidance provided by NOAA's Ocean
Prediction Center.

Strong winds on the northern and western side of a frontal boundary
associated with the low are expected to affect portions of the
mid-Atlantic coast.  As a result, high wind warnings are in effect
for coastal sections of northeastern North Carolina, southeastern
Virginia, and the eastern shore of Virginia and Maryland through
this evening.

This is the last advisory issued by NHC, and additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 36.0N  74.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  30/0600Z 37.6N  70.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  30/1800Z 39.3N  65.6W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  31/0600Z 40.9N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  31/1800Z 42.8N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  01/1800Z 47.4N  41.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/1800Z 52.0N  25.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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Page last modified: Saturday, 16-Dec-2017 12:09:18 UTC