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Potential Tropical Cyclone TEN (Text)


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Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102017
500 AM EDT Mon Aug 28 2017

Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten continues to lack a well-defined
center, as shown in the coastal stations, buoys, and ASCAT
scatterometer passes.  Moreover, the convection - while deep - is
now strung out linearly from northeast to southwest, more
reminiscent of a front or trough.  Thus it does not appear that
genesis into a tropical cyclone is imminent.  Observations from
buoys and the ASCAT passes indicate that the peak winds remain
about 30 kt.

While the disturbance has plenty of warm water and moist air
available, it's being sheared by strong upper-level westerlies.
The shear may lessen slightly over the next day or so, allowing
a short window of opportunity for the system to undergo genesis and
some intensification.  But in about 36-48 hr, the shear should go
back up as the system reaches cooler SSTs, likely limiting the
intensification as a tropical cyclone.  At about the same time, the
system should transform into an extratropical cyclone and further
develop via baroclinic forcing.  The intensity forecast shows a
slightly delayed genesis and more gradual intensification through
24 hr compared to the previous advisory and about the same
thereafter.  This forecast is based upon a blend of the
statistical, hurricane-mesoscale, and global models.

The disturbance is officially shown as stationary, but this is an
educated guess without a well-defined center being present.  After
meandering for another 12 hr or so, the system should consolidate
and begin accelerating off toward the northeast.  The mesoscale and
global guidance shows higher uncertainty than usual in the 12-36 hr
time frame and lower uncertainty for the 72 hr and beyond
forecasts, likely because of the variability in the models of where
and when a well-defined center forms.  The official track forecast
is very similar to the previous one.

The track, intensity, and size forecasts for 48 hr and beyond are
based upon guidance provided by the Ocean Prediction Center.  Note
that even though potential impacts from this system's winds could
occur within the 36 hr time frame for a Tropical Storm Warning,
because the intensity forecast is for a low-end tropical storm and
the winds are all over the eastern semicircle, the threat of
coastal tropical storm winds remains possible but low.  Thus the
Tropical Storm Watch for portions of South Carolina and North
Carolina are retained at this time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  28/0900Z 30.3N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  28/1800Z 31.1N  80.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  29/0600Z 32.9N  79.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  29/1800Z 35.0N  76.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 48H  30/0600Z 37.5N  72.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  31/0600Z 41.0N  62.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  01/0600Z 44.0N  51.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  02/0600Z 48.5N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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Page last modified: Monday, 18-Dec-2017 12:09:22 UTC