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HURRICANE HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017
1500 UTC FRI AUG 25 2017
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
26.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 96.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) 3(11)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 5(10)
MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 4(11)
ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 5(16)
LAFAYETTE LA 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 5(18)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) 4(14) 4(18)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 13(25) 5(30) 5(35)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 5(13)
FORT POLK LA 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 3(10) 5(15) 2(17) 6(23)
LAKE CHARLES 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 7(19) 4(23) 4(27)
LAKE CHARLES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
CAMERON LA 34 2 4( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 9(22) 5(27) 5(32)
CAMERON LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5)
CAMERON LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
JASPER TX 34 2 3( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 7(20) 3(23) 4(27)
KOUNTZE TX 34 3 5( 8) 8(16) 4(20) 11(31) 2(33) 4(37)
KOUNTZE TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 3 5( 8) 6(14) 5(19) 11(30) 4(34) 4(38)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6)
PORT ARTHUR TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GALVESTON TX 34 16 18(34) 10(44) 4(48) 15(63) 2(65) 2(67)
GALVESTON TX 50 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) 7(14) 2(16) 1(17)
GALVESTON TX 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) 1( 5)
HOUSTON TX 34 11 33(44) 11(55) 5(60) 12(72) 1(73) 2(75)
HOUSTON TX 50 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 5(14) 1(15) 1(16)
HOUSTON TX 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
AUSTIN TX 34 3 45(48) 19(67) 5(72) 6(78) X(78) X(78)
AUSTIN TX 50 X 4( 4) 8(12) 4(16) 3(19) X(19) X(19)
AUSTIN TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAN ANTONIO TX 34 4 64(68) 13(81) 4(85) 5(90) X(90) X(90)
SAN ANTONIO TX 50 1 9(10) 14(24) 6(30) 6(36) X(36) X(36)
SAN ANTONIO TX 64 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
FREEPORT TX 34 64 13(77) 4(81) 2(83) 7(90) X(90) 1(91)
FREEPORT TX 50 2 4( 6) 5(11) 2(13) 13(26) 1(27) 1(28)
FREEPORT TX 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 7(10) X(10) 1(11)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 89 1(90) X(90) 2(92) 3(95) X(95) X(95)
GFMX 280N 950W 50 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 3(10) 17(27) 3(30) 1(31)
GFMX 280N 950W 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 10(12) 2(14) X(14)
HIGH ISLAND TX 34 4 11(15) 10(25) 4(29) 14(43) 3(46) 3(49)
HIGH ISLAND TX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11)
HIGH ISLAND TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
MATAGORDA TX 34 93 4(97) X(97) 1(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99)
MATAGORDA TX 50 11 21(32) 5(37) 3(40) 16(56) 1(57) X(57)
MATAGORDA TX 64 1 6( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 11(22) 1(23) X(23)
PORT O CONNOR 34 99 X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
PORT O CONNOR 50 48 30(78) 3(81) 1(82) 6(88) X(88) X(88)
PORT O CONNOR 64 10 27(37) 2(39) 1(40) 15(55) X(55) X(55)
ROCKPORT TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ROCKPORT TX 50 81 17(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
ROCKPORT TX 64 42 44(86) 1(87) X(87) 3(90) X(90) X(90)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
CORPUS CHRISTI 50 55 34(89) X(89) 1(90) 3(93) X(93) X(93)
CORPUS CHRISTI 64 11 38(49) 3(52) X(52) 8(60) X(60) X(60)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 270N 960W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GFMX 270N 960W 64 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97)
MCALLEN TX 34 10 9(19) 7(26) 4(30) 21(51) 1(52) 1(53)
MCALLEN TX 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
MCALLEN TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HARLINGEN TX 34 33 7(40) 5(45) 2(47) 19(66) X(66) 1(67)
HARLINGEN TX 50 2 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 10(16) X(16) X(16)
HARLINGEN TX 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BROWNSVILLE TX 34 22 5(27) 5(32) 4(36) 21(57) 1(58) 1(59)
BROWNSVILLE TX 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) 8(13) 1(14) X(14)
BROWNSVILLE TX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 16(28) 4(32) 1(33)
GFMX 250N 960W 50 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
GFMX 250N 960W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2)
LA PESCA MX 34 1 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
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